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TL;DR
Top News of the Week: Most of the unclaimed tariff refunds belong to small importers, and many of them don’t know the money exists.
From Last Week’s News: Elliott Hill was hired to fix too many Dunks on shelves. Two years later, the businesses behind 63% of Nike’s revenue are shrinking.

TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
$30B in Tariff Refunds is Still Unclaimed
I’d bet a large share of it belongs to small Amazon and Shopify sellers who figured refunds were a big-importer thing.
The U.S. Court of International Trade certified a class of importers on October 8. It covers anyone who paid IEEPA tariffs between February 2025 and February 2026 and hasn’t filed their own suit. After the Supreme Court struck those tariffs down in February, the trade court ordered Customs to refund about $166B, and Supply Chain Dive reports more than $100B has gone out through Customs’ CAPE system. The court estimates about $30B would stay with the government without a class action. Its order says the importers who haven’t used CAPE are mostly small ones put off by the cost or effort, or unaware it exists.
James Kim at ArentFox Schiff notes the ruling doesn’t make anyone newly eligible or order payments yet, and the Justice Department is appealing a related order. Proposed schedules are due October 22. If you imported in that window, call your broker or carrier this week.
UPS is Done With Amazon
UPS says its 18-month glide down is complete. Carol Tomé told analysts it took out 2M pieces a day and about $4.5B in expenses. The network that’s left is smaller and more profitable, which I don’t think is a good trade in a business where volume sets price. UPS cut 48,000 jobs in 2025, plans 30,000 more this year, and is putting much of its investment into healthcare logistics. I can’t tell yet whether that makes it a specialty carrier.
BJ’s Tries Cutting SKUs Again
BJ’s plans to cut about 20% of its products over the next couple of years, taking older warehouse clubs from around 7,500 items to 6,000 or 6,500. CEO Robert Eddy’s example was body wash, where fewer scents should push sales to the ones left on the shelf. BJ’s tried this before and added items back when sales fell. Lululemon and Under Armour have made their own cuts, and Dollar General removed up to 1,500 items. I’d like to hear what BJ’s plans to do differently.
Albertsons Wants up to $9.3B From Kroger
The trial began October 19 in Delaware. Most of the demand is the premium Albertsons shareholders would have collected if the $24.6B deal had closed. On top of that is the $600M termination fee Kroger hasn’t paid and about $75M in interest and costs. By my math, the top of the range is about 15 times the breakup fee the two companies wrote into the contract.
Agentic Island, October 29
I’m hosting a two-hour virtual summit on agentic commerce at 9 a.m. Pacific, sponsored by Shopware. Co-founder Stefan Hamann joins me for a fireside chat, and agencies that get brands ready for AI shopping agents walk through where to start. Register here
THE BIG IDEA
Customs is sitting on about $30B that small importers could claim, and Kroger still hasn’t paid a $600M fee it agreed to in writing. Neither pile of money moves until someone files the paperwork or a judge rules. UPS and BJ’s went the other way this week and chose to get smaller. UPS says its network makes more money now, and BJ’s says shoppers will buy more from a shorter list. Both can probably show better numbers for a quarter or two. What I don’t know is how either holds up while Amazon keeps adding volume and other retailers keep adding items.
JOIN RICK WATSON FOR A 2-HOUR AGENTIC COMMERCE VIRTUAL SUMMIT

THE TRUTH ABOUT LAST WEEK: Six of Seven Retro Jordans Sold Below Retail in September
Elliott Hill took over at Nike about two years ago to clean up an overextended DTC push and an oversupply of Dunks and Jordans. Those problems have since spread into the businesses that carry the company. Jordan and Sportswear together make up roughly 63% of revenue, and both are shrinking, along with Greater China.
Sportswear fell by a low double-digit percentage in the quarter. Dunk revenue dropped almost 50% and took about $200M off the segment’s Q1 top line, so the Dunk was close to a $400M quarter a year ago. Studio Fleece and Air Force 1 held up.
Greater China revenue fell 22% to start fiscal 2027, after two years of declines. Nike is shutting more than 1,000 partner-run digital storefronts and moving to its own app and site, plus its flagships on the big marketplaces. Hill expects revenue and profit there to take a hit in the near term.
Jordan brought in $8.7B in fiscal 2024 and has lost roughly 20% since then, with another mid-teens drop in Q1. Six of seven retro Jordan launches in September traded below retail.
WHY IT MATTERS
Nike has also stopped reporting comparable store sales by region, and from fiscal 2028 it will report China inside a combined Asia Pacific segment. Hill lists China among the businesses that “represent significant work ahead.” Nike is cutting back how much of that work anyone outside the company gets to see.





