Elastic Path is the API-first, AI-ready commerce platform for brands with complex requirements: large catalogs, multi-tier pricing, and multiple brands and markets. Manufacturers, distributors, and retailers run account hierarchies, quoting, and negotiated pricing natively, not through bolt-on apps and workarounds.

Andy Jassy told investors and analysts last week that Amazon may have two trillion-dollar revenue businesses in the next five to 10 years, meaning AWS and the stores business, and neither is close today. Jassy is usually the executive who won’t speculate on a call, so I took the statement seriously and ran the numbers with Jessica Lesesky on this week’s show.

AWS grew 39% to $46B in the third quarter, its sixth straight quarter of acceleration, and Jassy says growth will be above 40% in both 2027 and 2028. Amazon puts AWS at a $184B run rate. Grow that at 40% a year for five years and you get to roughly $990B around 2031. That’s my math, and it lines up with what analysts have published since the call.

The backlog supports it. AWS has $578B in contracted future revenue, more than double a year ago, so I expect AWS to get to a trillion first. Getting there won’t be cheap, since Amazon expects to spend about $220B on capex this year and says 2027 will be meaningfully higher. Earnings came in at $1.89 a share against $1.97 expected, partly because of interest on a growing pile of debt. Bezos told shareholders in 1997 that Amazon would put long-term growth ahead of short-term profit, and investors who held on through the early years have done well by that. After this quarter they are being asked to keep waiting on the next round of profits.

Electricity could slow all of this down. Both parties seem to be turning against data centers right now, and the industry’s own build plans need more power than anyone has shown me a way to supply. I haven’t heard a convincing answer from Amazon either.

Retail looks harder to me. Jess did the napkin math on the show, starting from roughly $575B in retail revenue. Amazon needs about $420B more to reach a trillion by 2036. Her split has first-party sales adding about $82B, seller fees $141B and advertising $158B, which leaves grocery needing around $45B, a manageable number on its own.

Seller fees and ad growth are both slowing, though. If that continues, grocery has to make up another $15-$20B, and Amazon ends up competing with Walmart and Costco to be the biggest grocer in the country. Doing that would take far more stores than Amazon has. Amazon’s physical stores, mostly Whole Foods, grew 2% last quarter, while Walmart keeps getting stronger and Costco isn’t going anywhere.

Jassy also said Amazon expects to work with horizontal shopping agents, and that Alexa will be the best agent because it has the most context on your order history. I read that as Amazon opening the door to outside agents when the deal favors Amazon. Many retailers pay agents for placement. I’d expect Amazon to ask the agents to pay it, maybe through ads or a data licensing deal.

The stores trillion depends on Amazon winning a grocery fight it hasn’t won in nine years of owning Whole Foods. We’ll track the grocery number every quarter on the show, and so far it hasn’t moved enough to make the second trillion look likely.

Klaviyo grew revenue 25% to $387.2M in Q3, and most of that growth came from its largest accounts. The release leads with agent traction, but the customer counts are the more useful number.

Klaviyo expects Q4 growth of about 21%. Composer and Klaviyo Headless are supposed to help with that. I’d watch whether free cash flow recovers before the new buyback money runs out.