TL;DR
Watson Weekend: Costco cut Kirkland pepper from $6.99 to $5.99 with part of its tariff refund. A member has sued, arguing that cheaper pepper is no refund for people who paid the higher prices.
The News You Did Not Know You Needed: Walmart used the same cardboard box for more than 20 years. It’s now replacing every one of them, because the new boxes have to be an inch and a half shorter to fit the machines
News We’re Loving: Starbucks kicking tires, Walmart announce 1-hour pickup.

THE WATSON WEEKEND
Costco Put Part of Its Tariff Refund Into The Price of Pepper and Coffee
A lot of Costco’s growth is coming from members who don’t have room for a pallet of paper towels.
Net sales rose 11.2% last quarter to $93.9B, and paid members reached 84.1M, up 3.8%, according to the release. On the earnings call, CEO Ron Vachris said members under 40 have grown nearly 60% since COVID and now make up more than a quarter of the base. He didn’t give a count. A quarter of 84.1M is about 21M memberships. That’s my math, though, and it depends on how Costco decides whose age counts on a household card.
Many of these members order on their phones. Costco says orders placed through its delivery marketplaces arrive in under an hour on average and are mostly incremental to the warehouse grocery business. I’d want to see the data on that before I believed it. Costco is the only one measuring it, and it pays the delivery partners whether those sales are new or not.
Digitally enabled comparable sales grew 19.5% in the quarter, roughly twice the 9.4% growth in total comps.
I’m a member as of recently, and the first thing I bought was a mattress. Jess, my co-host, isn’t a member because she has nowhere to store bulk paper towels.
Younger members spend less at first, so the case for chasing them rests on the membership model. There are 42.3M executive members, and they account for 75.6% of sales. Membership fee income was $1.85B in the quarter, against $1.72B a year earlier. The US and Canada renewal rate was 92.3%, up 10 basis points from the prior quarter and level with a year ago. Costco expects the under-40 group to trade up to executive over time and keep renewing.

Costco rotisserie chicken is a loss leader that has become business school material and also a Mission Impossible scene.
Costco received $184M in IEEPA tariff refunds in the quarter, about a third of what it expects in total. The release says the refunds added 15 cents a share to earnings after Costco put part of the money back into prices. Kirkland Colombian coffee went from $21.99 to $19.99, and Kirkland pepper went from $6.99 to $5.99. Reported EPS was $6.75, up 15% from $5.87. Without the 15 cents, EPS was $6.60, up about 12% on my math.
An Illinois member has filed a proposed class action arguing that the refunds belong to the shoppers who paid the higher prices. Since March, Costco has said it will return the value through lower prices and better values. The complaint says general price cuts don’t count as a refund to the specific people who paid more.
I think Costco’s approach is defensible. Most of the people who paid tariff-inflated prices are still shopping there and will get the lower prices. Jess thinks shareholders were paid first. The 15-cent benefit is already in reported earnings, and no court has ruled on whether the class can go ahead.
Costco says a similar amount of refunds arrived early in the new quarter, and it expects more after that. The release didn’t break out how much of the Q4 money went to prices and how much went to earnings.

LISTEN TO THE LATEST WATSON WEEKLY WEEKEND EPISODE

THE NEWS YOU DID NOT KNOW YOU NEEDED
Walmart Bought a Robotics Company for $400M and Sold it for $200M
Walmart is automating most of its roughly 200 U.S. supply-chain buildings while they keep shipping to stores. The WSJ says about 80% of the projects are retrofits of warehouses built in the 1980s and ’90s. Walmart’s head of supply-chain operations told the paper the company is at its most complicated stage.
Monthly electricity at Walmart’s automated grocery sites can top $800K in peak months, according to a person familiar with the operations. Before automation the bill was about $250K. The engineers who run the systems also earn more than the warehouse workers did.
Symbotic says under 10% of its robots were being repaired at any one time last year, and about 5% now. That figure comes from Symbotic itself, and Walmart owns 12.6% of the company.
Walmart paid $400M for Alert Innovation in 2023 and sold it to Symbotic last year for $200M. Symbotic doesn’t expect a workable in-store version before 2028.
Walmart says more than 65% of its stores now get some automated freight. Kroger closed three automated fulfillment centers last fall and took a $2.6B charge. Walmart expects automation spending to peak this year and next, and nobody has said when it pays back.

NEWS WE’RE LOVING
CNBC: Starbucks reportedly explored acquiring Chipotle.
Walmart: announces 1-hour Express Pickup available in 500 stores.

WATSON IN THE WILD
Rick Watson Appeared on a ShipStation webinar: How Intelligent is your eCommerce delivery?



