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TL;DR

  • Top News of the Week: Washington ended de minimis and Shein still turned over $2B in the US last quarter.

  • From Last Week’s News: Brokers bill per entry. Altana is selling brokers software that automates the entry filing itself.

  • Weekly Look Ahead: UPS, PayPal, and Amazon announce earnings this week.

TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK

Shein Still Did $2B in the US Last Quarter

The company American lawmakers chased off the New York Stock Exchange is going public anyway, and the filing shows how much the US cost it to get there.

Shein's draft prospectus hit the Hong Kong exchange on July 26, two weeks after Chinese regulators cleared the listing. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan are running it. No share count, price range or timetable yet, which leaves the $40B to $50B valuation in press reports as a starting position rather than a commitment.

The American numbers are the story. US revenue in the first quarter of 2026 fell 14.3 percent to $2.04B. The market that supplied 29.4 percent of Shein's revenue in 2023 now supplies 22.5 percent. Washington ended the de minimis exemption in May 2025, and Shein's own filing says the removal hurt US sales, dragged on overall growth and pushed expenses up. That is the company confirming, in a legal document, what the policy was designed to do.

The consolidated picture followed the American one down. Revenue grew 8 percent in 2025 to $41.85B, against 20.7 percent growth the year before. Net income fell 38.7 percent to $2.06B. The first quarter produced a $99M loss versus $395M of profit a year earlier, and while a one-time accounting charge is inside that number, operating margin still slid from 3.9 percent to 2.9 percent.

Marketing is the part US retailers should read closely. Marketing ran 10.7 percent of net revenue in 2024 and 15.8 percent in the first quarter of this year. Shein is paying more to acquire customers in the same period its landed costs went up. Amazon Haul and Temu are both bidding against it for the same low-intent traffic. Anyone who assumed the tariff change would push Shein out of American media auctions should look at that line again.

There is a second American consequence in this deal that has nothing to do with tariffs. Shein tried New York in 2023 and got blocked by lawmakers over forced labor and supply chain disclosure. It tried London and lost eighteen months. Hong Kong resolved it by not litigating the question. US investors who want exposure will get it under Hong Kong disclosure rules, from a company that no longer has any reason to answer a Senate letter.

Late August is the window. What gets priced is whether a $2 billion American quarter at 2.9 percent operating margin is a floor or a waypoint.

THE BIG IDEA

The competitive read is more uncomfortable. Shein is smaller in America than it was, and its US business still turned over roughly $2B in a single quarter while absorbing full duty. The exemption is gone and the volume mostly stayed. American apparel retailers who spent two years arguing that de minimis was the whole advantage now have a quarter of evidence pointing somewhere else.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT LAST WEEK:

Altana Buys Its Way Into the Customs Entry

  • Altana bought Cervo AI. Terms were not disclosed.

  • Cervo's software writes customs entries, including PGA filings, out of whatever lands in a broker's inbox: emails, EDI feeds, scanned PDFs. Those entries are the legal filings that clear a shipment.

  • Altana used to stop at classification, origin and duty determination. It now covers the filing itself.

  • Global customs brokerage runs roughly $45B a year by Altana's own estimate, still largely manual work done by licensed professionals.

  • Altana says the combined platform lets brokers process five times as many entries. No benchmark, no named customer behind the figure.

  • The release puts 8 of the world's 10 largest logistics providers on Altana's customer list. US CBP uses the platform on the enforcement side.

  • All three Cervo co-founders join. Thomas Jiang and Troy Shen ran the company as co-CEOs, with Jason Kurohara as CTO.

Altana sold data about goods. Now it sells the filing. A customs entry is a legal document a licensed broker signs, and moving from reference data into that document changes who carries the risk when a classification turns out wrong. The five-times claim comes from Altana with nothing published behind it.

WHY IT MATTERS

Brokerage revenue is billed per entry, so software that multiplies entry volume also presses on what a single entry is worth, and the customers buying it are the brokers billing that way. Altana has not said how that math resolves for them.

WEEKLY LOOKAHEAD:

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING THIS WEEK

  • Tuesday, July 28th: UPS Earnings (Before the Open)

    Domestic package margin against declining volume. If the Amazon glide-down is working, the remaining mix has to pay better, and this is the quarter it should show

  • Tuesday, July 28th: PayPal Earnings (Before the Open)

    Branded checkout growth versus transaction margin dollars. Total payment volume can keep climbing on Braintree while the part that actually earns money goes flat.

  • Thursday, July 30th: Amazon (After the Close)

    North America segment operating margin, read against the Prime Day timing shift. A pulled-forward event flatters the revenue comp and tells you nothing about retail profitability.

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