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Retail's share of total consumer spending dropped 9% in three years — from 34.3% in 2022 to 30.8% by Q4 2025.

Why have you not heard this story before? Exactly. I was surprised to hear it too.

That money didn't disappear. It moved to healthcare, housing, and financial services. Consumers aren't spending less — at least overall. They're spending differently and less on stuff.

Inside that shrinking retail spend, discretionary categories are actually gaining ground. Electronics, personal care, hobbies, and furniture — all up in share. Gas and building materials — down hard. The consumer didn't stop buying. They got more intentional.

Amazon does seem to be positioned perfectly for that shift. Walmart may not be, well, not yet, anyway.

Amazon captured 11.1% of total U.S. consumer retail spending last quarter — a record. But the category breakdown is where the story gets specific.

Hobby goods: 35% category share, up 69% from 2019. Electronics: 32%, up from 23%. Clothing and furniture both more than doubled. Health and personal care more than tripled.

72% of Black Friday shoppers — 49% of all U.S. consumers — bought something from Amazon during the holiday. Sounds like domination to me.

Their overall retail share has barely moved in years — neither growing nor collapsing. What's holding it up is grocery (which is 60%+ of the business and growing), where their share of U.S. food and beverage spending rose 13% from 2019 to 2025. Walmart is up 13 points, while Amazon gained 1 point… one.

Grocery is weekly traffic. It's habit. It's the reason someone opens the Walmart app at all.

But outside grocery, Walmart seems to be still losing share overall. Clothing, electronics, and hobby goods — losing ground in all of them.

Where it applies to you is your product mix. Which side of the discretionary-versus-essential divide your product lives on — and whether you're fully committed to being truly excellent there.

Amazon increasingly owns discretionary. If you sell electronics, personal care, or furniture, and you're not showing up in Amazon search with strong placements and reviews, you are losing sales every day.

Walmart's grocery dominance is a distribution opportunity for CPG brands. That foot traffic and digital frequency are available to you.

The dangerous place for brands is the middle. Not essential enough to ride Walmart's grocery anchor. Not differentiated enough to own a category on Amazon.

Nike is still here. And maybe it will be forever. After all, they are one of the world's iconic brands. Yet, they are still in the process of rebooting from the Donahoe DTC pivot, which cost them — I dunno, years? Shelf space, NPS, and customer mindshare.

The New York Times published an article recently that the new CEO Hill's play is essentially PR. PR to the world, to athletes they forgot about, and to the broader market. He's texting athletes. OK. One customer at a time, I guess?

There is some innovation restarting, but it feels limited to the higher end. Are you excited about a mainstream Nike shoe? Oh wait, you're not an elite marathoner?

The other "innovations" require air-quotes. Inflatable Olympics jackets are not going to shoot Nike to the moon here.

So what's Plan B exactly? Right now, there doesn't seem to be one.

Hill has a Plan A and a prayer that the World Cup and Olympics give him enough marketing tailwind to prove the numbers before investor patience runs out.

The real question is: how much time does Elliott Hill have, and what happens if the World Cup and Olympics do not provide a tailwind for Nike’s overall business? Asking for a friend.

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